Which of the following best captures the central thesis of the passage?

. C captures both components: (1) unpredictability and (2) dominance of such events in shaping systems. A is too extreme—“invalidate all models” and “planning futile” are not claimed. B focuses only on retrospective storytelling (a supporting idea, not the thesis). D is a counterargument refutation, not the central claim.

The author’s response to the “more data improves prediction” argument can best be described as:

. The passage states: “More data often refines our narratives rather than our foresight.” B captures this nuanced stance—data helps explanation, not prediction. Why others fail: A: No direct empirical argument presented. C: Too absolute; the author is skeptical, not fatalistic. D: “Introduces new risks” is not discussed.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the author’s argument?

. The core claim: major events lie outside prediction. A directly attacks this by suggesting they were actually predictable. Why others don’t weaken effectively: B supports resilience (aligned with conclusion). C supports cognitive bias argument. D is domain-specific and does not generalize to Black Swans.

The passage implies that the primary risk of retrospective explanation is that it:

. Passage: retrospective clarity → illusion of predictability → reliance on fragile models. That chain leads directly to overconfidence. Why others are traps: B: Not discussed. C: Too narrow. D: True but secondary—doesn’t capture the forward-looking risk.

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In the Wake of the Black Swan

Rare, unpredictable events shape history more than trends, exposing the limits of prediction and the need for resilience over certainty.

A trader watches a screen flicker, steady for months, then suddenly rupture. The collapse feels abrupt, almost theatrical, yet the explanations arrive with suspicious speed. We call it a crash, a correction, a cycle completing itself. But the order we impose afterward hides the disorder that produced it. Nassim Nicholas Taleb names such disruptions Black Swans: rare, high-impact events that escape prediction yet invite retrospective storytelling. The paradox is immediate. The more consequential the event, the less visible it was…

RC Questions

Each essay includes four exam-level RC questions for CAT, GMAT, GRE, XAT and IPMAT.

Which of the following best captures the central thesis of the passage?
C captures both components: (1) unpredictability and (2) dominance of such events in shaping systems. A is too extreme—“invalidate all models” and “planning futile” are not claimed. B focuses only on retrospective storytelling (a supporting idea, not the thesis). D is a counterargument refutation, not the central claim.
The author’s response to the “more data improves prediction” argument can best be described as:
The passage states: “More data often refines our narratives rather than our foresight.” B captures this nuanced stance—data helps explanation, not prediction. Why others fail: A: No direct empirical argument presented. C: Too absolute; the author is skeptical, not fatalistic. D: “Introduces new risks” is not discussed.
Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the author’s argument?
The core claim: major events lie outside prediction. A directly attacks this by suggesting they were actually predictable. Why others don’t weaken effectively: B supports resilience (aligned with conclusion). C supports cognitive bias argument. D is domain-specific and does not generalize to Black Swans.
The passage implies that the primary risk of retrospective explanation is that it:
Passage: retrospective clarity → illusion of predictability → reliance on fragile models. That chain leads directly to overconfidence. Why others are traps: B: Not discussed. C: Too narrow. D: True but secondary—doesn’t capture the forward-looking risk.

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In the Wake of the Black Swan