The Fifteen Hour Week That Keynes Promised and Rich Countries Declined

In 1930 the economist John Maynard Keynes wrote an essay on the economic prospects of his grandchildren's generation. He predicted that within a century the standard of living in progressive countries would be between four and eight times higher, and that technology would allow people to meet their needs with perhaps fifteen hours of work a week.

The first prediction has largely come true. By most estimates, output per person in rich countries has risen by at least the lower figure he gave. The second prediction has not. Full time workers in most rich countries still spend far more than fifteen hours a week at work, and the leisure he expected has not arrived in that form.

Economists have offered several explanations for the gap. Keynes himself drew a line between absolute needs and relative needs, the second kind being felt only because meeting them lifts a person above others. He expected absolute needs to be met soon, but he allowed that relative needs might be insatiable. Rising incomes need not shorten the week if they simply raise the standard that people feel obliged to reach.

Rising incomes need not shorten the week if they simply raise the standard that people feel obliged to reach.

Critics of this reading note that the average working year has fallen substantially in many rich countries since 1930, so the prediction was partly delivered and not simply ignored. The gains appeared as longer schooling, earlier retirement and paid holidays as well as shorter weeks. Others argue that hours are set by employers and institutions more than by anyone's needs, and the question remains open.